A hole in one is the classic unlikely event in golf. I have something like that based on ratings of players the math is very similar. An insurance company will use a predictive analytic model for a home insurance policy that will judge the annual risk of substantial damage from fire, earthquake, flood or hurricane based on the risk rating of the neighborhood the home is built in. I deliberately use a simplified model that is basically just high school statistics. The parameters of the problem need to be tailored to human considerations. A number of people have popularized the term “ wicked problem,” meaning it’s not mathematically cut and dried.
It was Morse code.Ībsent observational evidence, where you catch somebody going to the bathroom and looking at their phone, how easy is it to otherwise prove cheating using something like statistical analysis to look for anomalous play? It’s believed to have been a cellphone in a pocket. Yeah, but there’s one case in 2013 that I was involved in, where a player getting buzzes on his thighs was substantiated.
But he also hasn’t seen evidence that Niemann has cheated since then, including when he defeated Carlsen. Regan told investigators that he believes Niemann cheated in matches in 2015, 20. The practice of using math to search for the machine ghosts haunting the human game is a challenge that stretches the discipline of statistics to its limit, and the exercise is not always conclusive. Carlsen, 31, the current top player, has rocked the game’s international community with allegations that a 19-year-old competitor who recently defeated him, Hans Niemann, “has cheated more - and more recently - than he has publicly admitted.” A 72-page report released this week by one of the game’s top platforms,, citing statistical evidence, concluded that Niemann “has likely cheated in more than 100 online chess games, including several prize money events.” (Niemann, who has acknowledged cheating in the past but protested allegations of more recent cheating, did not respond to a request for comment.)īut unless someone has been caught stowing an iPhone in a toilet tank, catching cheaters is a “wicked problem” for statisticians like Regan, who parse massive data sets of chess moves and rating jumps to try to detect the difference between an inhuman player and a merely gifted one. Regan is one of the chess world’s top experts on cheating, and he’s been closely following the explosive events in the chess world in recent weeks.
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Today, Regan says, “ordinary code running on our smartphones can destroy any human player on the planet, including Magnus Carlsen.” Regan, a computer science professor at the University at Buffalo (SUNY) and an international chess master, the rank below grandmaster. “Have you heard the one about how your phone is more powerful than the world’s biggest supercomputer in 1993?” asks Kenneth W. Cheaters have been caught sneaking off to the bathroom to check moves on contraband smartphones.
For some high-level players, even getting the advice of a machine for a move or two at a critical moment is all you’d need to win. Engines are also sometimes deployed by unscrupulous players during games as a kind of cognitive exoskeleton that helps them easily overpower their betters. In the decades since IBM supercomputer Deep Blue defeated chess world champion Garry Kasparov in 1997, artificial intelligence has transformed the way humans play the game, and not always for the better.ĪI-powered chess “engines” are used legitimately by players for training and research before matches.
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